Notorious R.O.B.

Easy Is Not Simple

I would write a review of my week in New York City at the Inman Connect conference… except that I was in meetings pretty much all day long, and missed all but one session. I’ll direct you instead to people like Sean Carpenter for a recap.

But I did have a great series of #lobbycon sessions with new friends and old, typically over cocktails, and sometimes on street corners. That made me have one of those “a-ha” moments, which is either a flash of insight or complete idiocy. I figured you guys could tell me which it is.

Simple. Easy. The two are not the same thing. In fact, I think I could make a pretty strong argument that they are actually opposites of each other. That which is simple is rarely easy, and that which is easy is rarely simple.

I had the feeling last week that within real estate, all of the conversation, all of the energy, all of the innovation (to the extent that such is innovative at all) is around Easy. We rarely, if ever, talk about that which is Simple. Because for whatever reason, the Simple is hopelessly unrealistic in our industry.

Allow me to explain by way of introducing a new concept: The Starbucks Index.

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Say hello to Watson

Over on Facebook, in one of the real estate discussion groups I’m involved with, Loren Sanders posted the following:

I saw a documentary called “The Pit” about floor traders on the New York Board of Trade. It shows before and after they were bought out by an electronic trading company ICE. It is not an exact parallel to real estate but it shows clearly that progress waits for no one and no one (or company) is bigger than than market. That is my long winded lead in to: What are you doing now so your service will be relevant 2 years from now?

That sparked a bunch of discussion. The trailer for The Pit, by the way is here:

The movie is about the impact of technology on the Wall Street traders in the actual trading pits. Loren raises a really interesting question.

As it happens, I just contributed a chapter to Stefan Swanepoel’s upcoming report, speculating on the state of real estate in 2022. I’d call it science fiction, since ten years might as well be fifty years for trying to see where technology is headed. But I did find something while researching and thinking about that which is worth thinking about more.

Because of space limitations in print format, I couldn’t really get into all of the detail I’ve been thinking about. So I figured I’d think out loud here with you all.

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Is here:

http://prezi.com/1_mwtyk4vqcd/welcome-to-dystopia/

By the way, I’m really, really liking Prezi. I expect to use it from now on for all presentations. Amazing that a web app is better than even Keynote….

-rsh

A 1982 Osborne Executive next to a 2007 iPhone

I’m giving a presentation tomorrow at the Nextgen Realtor Group of the Houston Association of REALTORS. I do believe the actual title of my presentation, as in the program itself, is called Welcome to Dystopia. Somehow, it seems, I’ve become the Cassandra of the real estate industry. But in researching for the presentation, I ran across something that I wanted to think about more. And since writing blogposts is one of my primary ways to think about things… here it goes.

Moore’s Law states that the number of transistors one can fit on an integrated circuit board doubles every two years. (Originally, it was doubling every year, then every 18 months, and these days, the accepted ratio seems to be double every two years.) This principle is taken more or less as gospel within the computer hardware industry, and of course, the computer software industry designs its programs with Moore’s Law in mind. You write code that can barely function on today’s machines, and by the time you finish all the QA testing and roll it out, computers have gotten faster and more powerful.

So a ‘shorthand’ expression of Moore’s Law is that computing power doubles every two years.

Okay, you’re thinking… so what? We knew that. Duh!

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I forgot an angle on this post about agent ratings and consumers that’s more in line with the light and snappy flow of this blog.

As the NAR survey, flawed as it might be, shows, consumers overwhelmingly want these skills/qualities in a REALTOR:

• Honesty and Integrity – 98%
• Knowledge of purchase process – 96%
• Responsiveness – 93%
• Knowledge of real estate market – 92%
• Communication skills – 85%
• Negotiation skills – 84%
• People skills – 79%
• Knowledge of local area – 79%

The one quality that majority of consumers don’t care about? Skills with technology, at 40%.

So here’s my question.

The REALTORS who love, love, looooove technology, and spend most of their time talking about and studying/learning Facebook, Twitter, SEO, QR Codes, augmented reality, mobile technology, iPhone apps, and the rest of it… should I be assuming that y’all have the top eight skills/qualities mastered?

When I go to a REBarcamp and see literally hundreds of young REALTORS who couldn’t possibly have more than 5-6 years of experience in the business, should I assume that they’ve learned all they can about the local market, knowledge of purchase process, and negotiation skills, such that the only thing left to learn is technology skills?

If the answer is “Yes”, then followup: Is real estate really that easy? Why does a consumer need to pay tens of thousands in transaction fees if it is?

If the answer is “No”, then followup: Why would a professional spend so much time and energy learning things that their clients have said they don’t care about?

What do you think?

-rsh

The most frequently pressed number in a voicemail system: "0" for Operator

Now that I am a consumer in the real estate market, having moved from New Jersey to Texas (like so many others) and therefore having placed my house in the hands of a Realtor, I get to have some cool experiences. I wanted to share one of them with you all, especially the real estate professionals, because it struck me that this is probably not a perspective you get often from your buyers or sellers.

Tools. They’re great. I know many of you use tons of them. But you are going to want to consider how the consumer on the receiving end might perceive them. I got an email today from my agent, Sue Adler — or more precisely, I did not get an email from my agent, Sue Adler — which triggered this post.

Done correctly, tools can and do help you work more efficiently, more effectively, stay in touch better, and improve customer service. But more often than not, tools can make you seem impersonal and distant, like you just don’t care. And that’s probably not a good thing in something like a real estate transaction.

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As a longtime watcher of real estate and technology, but still just a consumer in every respect, I have a question for the technology-savvy realtors.

What does it matter to me, as a consumer, if you’re a tech-savvy agent?

It’s a real question, actually, because at this point, I’m not sure what the answer is.  Let me explain.

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