Notorious R.O.B.

In part 1, I laid out some hints of what the Obama Administration has in mind for a new federal housing policy that would “reset the rules of the market” and engage in a “fundamental rethink” not just of the mechanics of housing finance, but of the objectives of housing policy themselves.  The Treasury now has all of the comments that it requested from the public and we can expect to see a proposal from the Administration sometime this fall or early next year.

In this post, I’d like to engage in the purest conjectures about what such a policy might look like.  I know that assumptions are dangerous, and any conjecture at this early stage is more likely to be wrong than right, but… hey, this is fun.  (If you’re a real estate and politics geek like me anyhow.)  So here we go.

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1906 San Francisco earthquake

There was, apparently, an earthquake in Washington DC not too long ago.  Thankfully, no one was hurt, and no serious property damage occurred as the 3.6 magnitude tremor rolled through.  Mere days later, however, I learned that another tremor — this one not registered on any geological survey — centered around Washington DC occurred.  From the Washington Post:

Responding to the collapse in home prices and the huge number of foreclosures, the Obama administration is pursuing an overhaul of government policy that could diverge from the emphasis on homeownership embraced by former administrations.

“In previous eras, we haven’t seen people question whether homeownership was the right decision. It was just assumed that’s where you want to go,” said Raphael Bostic, a senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development. “You’re not going to hear us say that.”

While this particular tremor hasn’t developed yet into anything earth-shattering just yet, and there are absolutely no details available just yet, for anyone even remotely connected to the real estate industry, these statements amount to a tectonic shift of realignment.

What rough beast, its hour come around at last, slouches towards DC to be born?

Conjectures follow.

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A while back, I wrote on Inman (subscription required) that the single greatest asset of realtors was political power, and got mixed comments about that position.  Well, the time to find out is upon us:

The popular tax break for mortgage interest, once considered untouchable, is falling under the scrutiny of policymakers and economic experts seeking ways to close huge deficits.

Although Congress last year rejected the White House’s proposed cut to the amount wealthier taxpayers can deduct for home mortgage interest payments, the administration included it again in its 2010 budget — saying it could save $208 billion over the next decade.

When NAR lauched HouseLogic.com last year, one of the examples it used to talk about how important HouseLogic.com would be was defending the home mortgage interest deduction.  With the Obama Administration putting the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction back on the agenda for 2010, it’s time to find out just how powerful NAR is, and whether NAR does in fact add value to the Realtor or not.

Plus, given that the “recovery” of 2009 and spring of 2010 (I have my doubts on how much of the recent market is a recovery vs. simply pulling deals forward in time, but nevertheless…) was widely seen as having been fueled by a $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit, the elimination of the mortgage interest should have interesting — if devastating — consequences for the market.

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I’m going to try to do a bit of a stream-of-consciousness “live-blog” here at Houston Association of REALTORS Real Estate Investment Symposium.  I put that in quotes because (a) I’m distracted often, and (b) the bandwidth isn’t the best off my little MiFi device.

I’ve already missed a couple of the early presentations from Zillow, Google, and Move, but a couple of interesting things from this morning.

Sam Sebastian from Google suggests that the future of real estate broker is as an ‘information broker’; I asked if he could elaborate on that, since the experience of the past ten or so years is the opposite: information that used to be held by realtors is now all over the public via the Internet.  Isn’t the trend more and more towards realtors becoming customer service people rather than information brokers?

The answer — and it’s a good one — basically seems to be (at least interpreting Sam) that by “information broker” he meant something more like an analyst.  That the future of the realtor is as an interpreter of all of the information and data that’s all over the place on the Internet.

Interestingly, Google’s search on real estate terms is up 20% year over year, despite the terrible market.  Incidentally, I think that’s contradictory to the experience of the other big real estate websites (or at least used to be a few years back), but I haven’t seen recent stats.

[EDIT: This is getting very long, so it continues after the fold.  And forgive me for the ugliness of the post; it's the nature of a "live-blog".]

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I've uncovered a terrible secret... a conspiracy...

So earlier today, I get an interesting email from our form on 7DSAssociates.com:

First Name: NAR
Last Name: Scandal
Email Address: info@narscandal.com
Company: NARscandal.com
Title:
Phone:
Comments: Breaking News!  New Scandal at the NAR

Exclusive from NARscandal.com

A new scandal is brewing over at the National Association of Realtors and we at (www.NARscandal.com) have the “exclusive story” along with quality in-depth reporting you can find no where else.

This scandal is a true living tale of real estate, the internet, technology, money, power & greed.

A must read for every member of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) as well as every citizen and homeowner within the United States and modernized world, as this one actually has the power to affect our future as well as future generations to follow, in so many ways.

Click here to read all of the latest details at ( http://www.NARscandal.com ).

Sincerely,

The Researchers & Writers
www.NARscandal.com
feedback@narscandal.com

http://twitter.com/narscandal.com

“The Next Generation of Real Estate Media”

Naturally, I am intrigued by the “Next Generation of Real Estate Media” that is talking about scandals and intrigues, power and greed, a shadowy powerful conspiracy with the power to affect future generations for years to come!  I’m sure there’s some sort of a DaVinci Code type of puzzle or three involved.  Tom Hanks and sexy French lady can’t be far behind!

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See that green pattern on the bark! That's 3.2(b)(iii) of the License!

Once again, I find myself in the curious position of praising the good folks at RPR while at the same time ending up on a negative note.  On the one hand, RPR’s posting their Content License Agreement (complete with redlined corrections) is by far the most transparent thing that I’ve seen a company do in real estate industry thus far.  Kudos not just to Reggie Nicolay, the Social Media director of RPR, but also to Marty Frame and to Dale Ross, the executives in charge of RPR.  These guys talk the talk, and walk the walk of being open and transparent.  Thank you guys, and I really mean that.

If you’d like to look at the entire Agreement, including the Terms of Use for the RPR Website, go to the Google Doc here.

Some of the critiques already on the web may be entirely valid, but I think they largely miss the point.  For example, Mike Wurzer’s post suggesting that the new License Agreement allows RPR to sell listing-level data to various customers may be accurate (or may not be, as Marty Frame points out in the comments), but… this falls into the category of missing the forest because you’re too busy looking at whether the tree is a douglas fir or a pine tree.

There are three major, fundamental issues that the License Agreement does not address — primarily because those issues stem from RPR’s business model and its basic value proposition.  If the goal is to nitpick the language of the Agreement in the hopes of finding a provision on which one can base a future lawsuit, I suppose the detailed analysis being done now is interesting.  If the goal, however, is to understand the fundamental challenge of RPR, then we need to raise our eyes up a bit.

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So how does this RPR thing affect us and our brokerage?

In part 1, I tried my level best to keep my opinions restricted to what RPR actually is, based on the demo.  And what RPR is is a fantastic piece of web engineering.  In this part, I get more into the opinionating and what Reggie Nicolay might term, “fearmongering”.

Let us examine the possible impact of RPR on brokers and agents, based on what we know thus far.

Caveat Lector: What We Know That We Don’t Know

One thing I learned at REBarCamp NYC that just happened last week, from Reggie himself, was that the Terms of Use for RPR have not yet been set.  And while the RPR has announced API’s, the terms of use on those have not been set or published.  We also don’t know what those API’s will actually do in terms of data provisioning over the API’s to third party tools or websites.

Therefore, one of the biggest pieces to the puzzle — the legal rights and responsibilities of RPR’s users — is as yet unknown, except in glimpses.  We also don’t know how flexible the RPR system will ultimately be.  It may be incredibly flexible, or it may be a closed system.

We don’t know yet whether brokerages (or even agents) can participate directly in RPR, or if they have to wait for their MLS to first sign up with RPR in order to utilize the full range of functionality.

For that matter, since all we’ve really seen is a video demo and some screenshots, we don’t really know at the end of the day what the finished product will actually look like and how it will work.

Enough caveats?  Okay, let’s get into this…

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All your castles are belonging to us now!

After a fairly lengthy silence, the team at RPR has released a deluge of new information on their new blog.  A couple of things before we delve in.

First, Reggie Nicolay and his team deserve a ton of credit for the new blog.  It’s well-designed, the content is rich and detailed, and many of the tools I would expect from a professional social media engagement site are there.  So kudos to Reggie and the gang on the marketing side.  (Minor quibble: can you not use videos that can be embedded? Or provide more sharing tools, like WordPress, Posterous, and the like?  The goal of RPR blog isn’t to drive traffic, right, but to get the word out?)

Second, from the movie of a live demo of the software, it seems evident that the development team has not had a easy and relaxing holidays.  They’ve been hard at work, and what I saw on the demo (we’ll spill many pixels on this) is slick, polished, and truly excellent.  They too deserve immense credit for what they’ve managed to accomplish in such a short period of time.

Now, as you probably know, I’m on the skeptical side of things as far as RPR is concerned, having announced its death and all.  And the demo itself, as amazing as it is, doesn’t completely change my mind on that front.  However, from the start, I have had nothing but praise for the software itself, and I’d like to make that crystal clear:  The RPR software is by far the most impressive piece of design and web development I have seen in real estate since the launch of Trulia.  I have nothing bad to say about it as a piece of software.

In this part, I’d like to simply review the RPR based on the demo that was recently posted.  Since I haven’t driven it myself, I’m not clear on what I may be missing.  So keep that in mind as you read.

Let’s dive in.

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[UPDATED 11/20/09: More facts added.]

Earlier this week, Reggie Nicolay (@ReggieRPR), the Director of Social Media for the REALTORS Property Resource, LLC, wrote:

I happen to agree 100%.  Also, a commenter on one of my earlier posts by the name of Kris Goodfellow wrote:

Rob,
I’ve got to say, that there is much in the way of speculation and little in the way of “facts” here. DOA, really? That’s pure conjecture. Marty got a standing O today from the 2000 leaders from every state and local associations. In the big broker’s session, the comments included “WOW!” and RPR was compared to Neil Armstrong walking on the moon.
I might be just an old fashioned, ex-newspaper journalist, but I’ve got to say that a year this post is going to look as silly as the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline. Tell the story, man, don’t try to be a fortune teller.

So let’s say I agree with both Reggie and Kris.

My take is that you kill drama and hype by showing the facts, not by calling questions and opinions “drama and hype”.  So in the interest of moving the conversation along, and also to emphasize once again that I am no opponent of RPR, I have put together all of the facts as I know them with sources, along with questions about what we do not know.  This way, anyone who is interested might be able to discern for himself what is real and what is drama.

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RPR! We hardly knew ye!

Without a doubt, the topic of conversation at this year’s NAR National Convention has been the REALTOR Property Resource (Link: PDF) or RPR, the ambitious $20mm program rolled out with much fanfare by NAR.  You couldn’t avoid talking about RPR even if you tried.  And I wasn’t really trying that hard, because RPR is a fascinating product, an awesome user interface, and one where the team led by Marty Frame deserves a whole lot of credit for pulling such a great product together in such a short period of time (roughly 4 months).  Despite my concerns that RPR will trigger a civil war in the real estate industry, I thought (and continue to think) very highly of RPR.

However, it is now time to bury RPR.  It is dead on arrival in its current incarnation.

Suspicious Minds

Having presented at, and then having sat through the presentation of Dale Ross and Marty Frame on RPR, at the MLS Executives Meeting at NAR yesterday, I believe that the general mood of the MLS operators ranges between open hostility to cautious neutrality.  The larger MLS’s are biding their time, to see what some of the details are, possibly to see what is being offered by RPR for early adopters.  (Full disclosure: a large MLS, MRIS, is a client of 7DS, but I am writing this post, as I have every post on this topic, based on what I personally saw and heard, and public information, as opposed to anything discussed with them.)  The smaller MLS’s are worried what RPR could mean for them, and miffed that there is no revenue sharing arrangement for the sale of “their” data.

Brokerages are not bursting over with enthusiasm either.  They also wonder what’s in RPR for them, since they feel that the data that the MLS is supposed to provide RPR belongs to them.  The broker-owned MLS’s can’t make a decision without getting their shareholders on board, and the mood appears dark, to say the least.

The fatal flaw of RPR, I think, is the lack of revenue share.  Brokers, MLS executives, and Association executives might all look with favor or at least interest on a proposal that promised revenue streams that would allow them all to either make greater profits, or reduce the cost of service to their members.  Dale Ross made it crystal clear to the MLS executives that there is no revenue share for them; he urged them, in fact, to cooperate and collaborate with RPR for the good of the members because RPR will provide tools to help the members of MLS’s become better practitioners.  Ross’s concession that maybe five years down the line, after RPR’s revenues and profits are stabilized, he may consider revenue share did not, it seemed to me, to go over all that well with the audience.

Trouble is, those types of answers do not appear to assuage the suspicion on the part of MLS executives and brokerages that what NAR intends to do with RPR is to create a national MLS.

Into this environment of suspicion comes a critical piece of information.

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