On November 6th, at roughly 3:15PM Eastern Standard Time, the National Association of REALTORS declared war on the rest of the real estate industry. To be fair, NAR probably did not realize that it did so. Judging by the initial responses, it doesn’t appear to me that most people see what I saw. But, probably because of my twisted nature and my penchant for focusing on the dark side of human nature, I am predicting nothing short of civil war in the real estate industry going forward unless REALTORS Property Resource (or RPR) in its current form is immediately scrapped.
What brings forth such hyperbole?
RPR, or REALTORS Property Resource, was a project shrouded in secrecy. Brian Larson’s post of October 19th, 2009 is a pretty good pre-unveiling summary of the questions and concerns around RPR. Brian Boero’s initial take is a very decent summary of the post-unveiling. But since Brian is a much nicer, much sunnier, much more positive guy than I am, I believe what you’ll get from Brian is the “Glass Half Full” vision.
Strap in for the darker vision.
Thinking about the dawn of a new day
I had promised in Part 2 of this series that I would tackle the so-called “K-Dub” model in this part. Well, I’ve decided against it. Looking at the numbers, it seems to me that from a model perspective, there’s nothing particularly novel about the K-Dub (based on Keller Williams) model. Its appeal and power lie elsewhere — power of recruiting, passive income streams, etc. — but on paper, K-Dub is clearly inferior to an optimized Traditional model and to the employee-based TerraFirma model. In the real world, of course, Keller Williams is the fastest growing real estate company in America for a reason.
Instead, I think it might be time to get into a meatier, opinion-based discussion about what the future might look like, based on the models thus far. So first, for those of you inclined to mess around with spreadsheets and such, I’m attaching the actual Excel spreadsheet I’ve been using for my analysis: Brokerage Models 2.0 (.xlsx workbook file).
Also, before we dive in, please take a moment to go read this post by Nicolai Kolding, the guy who sort of started this all with his prescient post on the status quo. Some of the comments to that post are just excellent, and this post of mine can be thought of as an extended comment to his post.