Notorious R.O.B.

The average denizen of the RE.net cybercafe — that includes you, since you’re reading this on a blog — knows that the hot topic du jour is syndication. I wrote about it here and here already, but frankly, have been talking about this issue for quite some time. And influential bloggers like Jay Thompson and Kris Berg have weighed in, and Facebook groups are all over this issue.

And I’ve gotten a couple of phone calls, a number of emails, and Facebook messages and such debating my one critical issue with me. I wrote that the issue here isn’t syndication, which is more or less dead in its current form, but IDX. And that one cannot be against syndication but for IDX. Jay Thompson agreed, while Kris Berg (to take but one example) disagreed.

So I’d like to explore this connection more, to clarify why the distinction between syndication and IDX does not, and cannot, hold. And what that then means for the future of the industry, by connecting a couple of dots.

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I’ve been traveling — planes, taxis, automobiles — and blogging has been difficult. And I’m typing this out in a hotel lobby before my next meeting, so it can’t be my typical overlong post. But I had to comment and ask questions about the latest salvo in the 2012 Syndication Wars.

I predicted in my 2012 Predictions post that listing syndication would be the big issue this year. Sure enough, events do not disappoint. You have probably seen this announcement by Jim Abbot of Abbot Realty Group by now:

And by now, you’ve seen some industry reactions. For example, this post by Tara Steele over at AgentGenius (they go by AGBeat these days?). Or you can check out Inman News reporting on the story (premium content).

I only have a couple of brief comments and a couple of questions about this.

First, this sort of move by brokerages was entirely predictable… but did it have to be a brokerage named ARG that opens up the salvo in 2012? I suspect many people will be making that sound in the coming months.

Second, given the number of times that Mr. Abbott talks about how valuable the listing information is, just how important it is as “intellectual property”, and talks about how major publicly traded companies like Zillow and Realtor.com/Move could not survive without that intellectual property… am I the only non-REALTOR out there listening to that and wondering, “Hey, so all that information about my house is that valuable eh? Should I get any piece of all that valuable intellectual property action?”

Third, am I the only one that found it interesting that Mr. Abbott draws a fairly clear distinction between “our clients” and buyers? Of course, he does mention several times that if you’re looking to buy a house, that you should call Abbot Realty Group. But in a few moments, he makes it pretty clear that his clients are the home sellers, not necessarily the home buyers. This becomes relevant because…

The fourth, and most important point… actually, let’s make that a question. Listen to the message behind his outrage in the middle there (around the 4 minute mark). Listen to the substance of the complaint. Listen to him talk about irresponsible agents who don’t know the neighborhood, the development, sometimes steers the buyer into a property/area they do know, etc. The issue boils down to this critical phrase: “If you want honest, accurate information about a property, talk to the source.” Someone explain to me how that critical phrase does not apply with 100% force to IDX, please?

This is not the end of the syndication issue, and I’m out of time. So I’ll end this here, some 1800 words short of my average. But if you’d like, take a crack at answering that question, please. Inquiring minds wanna know.

-rsh

Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of NAR and my doppelganger, has a new post up in which he discusses the growth in global population:

In regards to the United States, some have claimed that the large number of people retiring and an eventual dying off of the baby boomers will mean less housing demand in the future. This ignores one simple fact about the broader population and not just the baby boomers. Every year about 3 million additional people live in the U.S. The projection by the Census further calls for more people for the foreseeable future with the total tally rising to 436 million by 2050 from the current total of 311 million people. Such growth assures steady housing demand.

…

The stabilizing population, according to experts, is to be around 9 to 10 billion people. Hard to think about what all this means. Demand for real estate is automatically created. But how many by that time will be able to say that they own a property of their own?

He ends by saying, “So imagine a condition where you see twice as many people around your local town and spatial area. Is that too much or it that absorbable?”

I’d say I’m one of those who have claimed that the large number of Baby Boomers retiring and eventually going to join the great Drum Circle in the sky would mean less housing demand in the future. So I find Lawrence’s line of thinking very, very encouraging: 3 million more people live in the U.S. every year. Hence, housing demand will be robust.

Maybe. But three things come to mind here.

First, global population growth is not U.S. population growth.

Second, housing demand as a function of population growth clearly ignores the very troubling trends in the generation most likely to replace the Boomers in the United States: the Millennials (or Gen-Y).

Third, the issue for real estate industry isn’t so much generic “housing demand” but what kinds of housing demand we will see.

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Say hello to Watson

Over on Facebook, in one of the real estate discussion groups I’m involved with, Loren Sanders posted the following:

I saw a documentary called “The Pit” about floor traders on the New York Board of Trade. It shows before and after they were bought out by an electronic trading company ICE. It is not an exact parallel to real estate but it shows clearly that progress waits for no one and no one (or company) is bigger than than market. That is my long winded lead in to: What are you doing now so your service will be relevant 2 years from now?

That sparked a bunch of discussion. The trailer for The Pit, by the way is here:

The movie is about the impact of technology on the Wall Street traders in the actual trading pits. Loren raises a really interesting question.

As it happens, I just contributed a chapter to Stefan Swanepoel’s upcoming report, speculating on the state of real estate in 2022. I’d call it science fiction, since ten years might as well be fifty years for trying to see where technology is headed. But I did find something while researching and thinking about that which is worth thinking about more.

Because of space limitations in print format, I couldn’t really get into all of the detail I’ve been thinking about. So I figured I’d think out loud here with you all.

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The recently concluded NAR Convention in Anaheim that is. On the one hand, it was great to see old friends, make new friends, and engage in some wonderful conversations about everything from IDX Policy to branding to dating habits of college students. On the other hand, the entire convention was infused with an air of obstinate unreality, as if we all were jewel-bedecked revelers on The Titanic, dancing the night way sipping on champagne….

Based on hallway conversations, based on drunken whispers at industry parties, and based on what I’ve read and heard over the past few months, I believe there is an extinction-level event approaching the real estate industry. And all of the official groups, all of the powers that be, have failed to address it. So I will.

There is, I believe, a real chance that in the next three to six months, we will see the splintering of the foundation of the industry: the MLS and the Associations. The world that comes next, a world without the Multiple Listing Service, will be one filled with unintended consequences.

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Don't Tase Me, Bro!

Ah, the horse ain’t quite dead yet, Matt Dollinger. Nor is the discussion a moot point.

I testify, cuz at the September dinner of the Wired Straits Social Club (kinda like a Houston-based Lucky Strikes, which I started in NYC), we discussed this issue at some length. And got something out of it.

I figured I’d share at least one insight from that with you.

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I know you're working at marketing my 3BR/2BA colonial... but I just don't want to be in a relationship with you...

Over at Inman Next, Chris Smith stirs the cauldron up with a post entitled, “It Is No Longer A Relationship Business – Here’s Why“:

Where I disagree is in the stance that I want to have a relationship with my Realtor.

I don’t.

In fact, I can’t even imagine it.

My argument is that I am not alone.

Unlike a lot of the general public, I have a high level of respect for your profession.

I know how hard you work.

I know how unappreciated many of the things you do are.

I know the stress and challenges that come along with earning a paycheck and paying your bills ONLY if you sell things.

I have met countless Realtors both in person and online that have blown me away with their sales ability, marketing savvy, brand building skills and digital media efforts.

While many would never put the career Realtor along side other careers like Doctor and Lawyer which require significantly more education, I would.

It still doesn’t make me want to have a relationship with you. (Emphasis in original)

Read the whole thing. And people say I stir the pot….

In any event, not being a real estate agent, I don’t have a whole lot to add. I don’t know if RE is or is not a relationship business. But I am a strat guy, a general commentariat talking head guy, and so on. And I did have some questions for Chris (and others) which I asked over on his blog. It seems to me that what I’m asking needs a bit more elaboration, so here we go.

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Is here:

http://prezi.com/1_mwtyk4vqcd/welcome-to-dystopia/

By the way, I’m really, really liking Prezi. I expect to use it from now on for all presentations. Amazing that a web app is better than even Keynote….

-rsh

A 1982 Osborne Executive next to a 2007 iPhone

I’m giving a presentation tomorrow at the Nextgen Realtor Group of the Houston Association of REALTORS. I do believe the actual title of my presentation, as in the program itself, is called Welcome to Dystopia. Somehow, it seems, I’ve become the Cassandra of the real estate industry. But in researching for the presentation, I ran across something that I wanted to think about more. And since writing blogposts is one of my primary ways to think about things… here it goes.

Moore’s Law states that the number of transistors one can fit on an integrated circuit board doubles every two years. (Originally, it was doubling every year, then every 18 months, and these days, the accepted ratio seems to be double every two years.) This principle is taken more or less as gospel within the computer hardware industry, and of course, the computer software industry designs its programs with Moore’s Law in mind. You write code that can barely function on today’s machines, and by the time you finish all the QA testing and roll it out, computers have gotten faster and more powerful.

So a ‘shorthand’ expression of Moore’s Law is that computing power doubles every two years.

Okay, you’re thinking… so what? We knew that. Duh!

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How's that hopey-changey stuff working out for ya?

One of my pet hobby topics is to fret about the Millenials (the twentysomethings of today). I’ve written about this “largest demographic group like evah” here, here, and here – as well as peppered throughout this blog for a while now. A lot of people — especially in real estate — like to point to the older reaches of the Millenials (the young 30somethings) and think that they are the future of the industry.

Well, to be sure, from pure demographics standpoint, the Millenials do point to the future of the industry. But you should worry about that. A lot. My opinion about the Millenials is that they are the most Screwed Generation in American history who have had their initiative beaten out of them by overprotective parents, teachers and “safety” bureaucrats; their future mortgaged by irresponsible politicians of both parties with full-throated support by the Boomer Generation; their expectations of what is a good life totally unmoored from reality by Hollywood; their options foreclosed by a college-industrial complex that burdened them with absolutely unsustainable student debt (that is not dischargeable in bankruptcy); and of course, they screwed themselves with their attitude of entitlement and superiority complex based on nothing more than the fact that they know how to text message real fast and post pictures to Facebook.

It appears that even the dinosaurs over at the LA Times have noticed that the Hopeychange Generation is actually the Totally-Screwed Generation:

Call it Generation Vexed — young Americans who are downsizing expectations in the face of an economic future that is anything but certain. Career plans are being altered, marriages put off and dreams shelved.

Welcome to the real world, LA Times. Jump right in, the water is freezing.

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