Easy Is Not Simple
I would write a review of my week in New York City at the Inman Connect conference… except that I was in meetings pretty much all day long, and missed all but one session. I’ll direct you instead to people like Sean Carpenter for a recap.
But I did have a great series of #lobbycon sessions with new friends and old, typically over cocktails, and sometimes on street corners. That made me have one of those “a-ha” moments, which is either a flash of insight or complete idiocy. I figured you guys could tell me which it is.
Simple. Easy. The two are not the same thing. In fact, I think I could make a pretty strong argument that they are actually opposites of each other. That which is simple is rarely easy, and that which is easy is rarely simple.
I had the feeling last week that within real estate, all of the conversation, all of the energy, all of the innovation (to the extent that such is innovative at all) is around Easy. We rarely, if ever, talk about that which is Simple. Because for whatever reason, the Simple is hopelessly unrealistic in our industry.
Allow me to explain by way of introducing a new concept: The Starbucks Index.
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Continuing the tradition that started when the earth was young (or last year… depending on your definition of “time”), I’d like to present this year’s version of “Predictions Guaranteed to be Wrong, Or Your Money Back”! As we saw in the report card post, last year, I went 4.5 for 7 in predictions. I hope to bat lower for this year’s predictions. Of course, I can guarantee 0 for 7 by making ridiculous predictions, like “The Jets will win the SuperBowl”.
Without further ado, the predictions for 2012…
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In 2009, I batted .600 in predictions for 2010. And I thought that was fun. It’s one thing to make predictions; it’s another to look back and see how those predictions fared.
How did I do last year in predicting events of 2011? I was hoping to be maybe 1 out of 7, since most of my predictions last year were of the doom-n-gloom variety. Sadly, I think I’m 4.5 out of 7 for a .642 batting average. Hall of Fame (Infamy?), here I come.
We’ll review my take on the predictions for 2011 after the jump.
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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The recently concluded NAR Convention in Anaheim that is. On the one hand, it was great to see old friends, make new friends, and engage in some wonderful conversations about everything from IDX Policy to branding to dating habits of college students. On the other hand, the entire convention was infused with an air of obstinate unreality, as if we all were jewel-bedecked revelers on The Titanic, dancing the night way sipping on champagne….
Based on hallway conversations, based on drunken whispers at industry parties, and based on what I’ve read and heard over the past few months, I believe there is an extinction-level event approaching the real estate industry. And all of the official groups, all of the powers that be, have failed to address it. So I will.
There is, I believe, a real chance that in the next three to six months, we will see the splintering of the foundation of the industry: the MLS and the Associations. The world that comes next, a world without the Multiple Listing Service, will be one filled with unintended consequences.
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The Syndication Hole
One of the most fun things about coming to a NAR event — whether Mid-Year or Annual — is the ability to connect previously unconnected dots and have an A-HA! moment. I had one such moment yesterday in the legal seminar put on by NAR. I thought I’d jot down a few thoughts, as the MLS Policy Committee meeting is tomorrow, and this particular issue should be discussed and adjudicated there.
I’ve written about the current MLS IDX Policy language before, noting that the key term is “control”. I believe that the latest version adds some clarification along the lines of “control means that you can comply with the IDX policy”. It’s a bit circular, but I get the idea.
Then yesterday, I’m attending the legal seminar where Gregg Larson presents to the assembled legal counsels for hundreds of Associations and MLS’s on the topic of syndication. And I have an A-HA moment.
Seems to me that there is a giant hole in the IDX policy, and it’s called syndication. We’re gonna need a far tighter definition of “control” to plug that particular hole.
Yesterday, your faithful correspondent was part of an interesting session held by the Council of MLS (CMLS) here in Anaheim on branding or certifying MLS data. The basic premise with which the meeting began was something like the following:
- The MLS has a strong brand for trustworthiness and accuracy in the consumer’s mind
- Consumers assume that all real estate data is MLS data
- Third party data is crap
- Therefore, the MLS should brand and/or certify MLS data
Various speakers presented various pieces of evidence supporting the above. And if you accept the premise above, then branding the MLS data in some way is a no-brainer. The two methods proposed are (a) brand the destination as “MLS Trusted”, and (b) certify the listing data itself as “MLS Certified”.
But I have my reasons for wondering about the assumptions.
At first glance, the biggest change in the new IDX Policy to be proposed at NAR Anaheim is that it removes entirely the section allowing Franchise IDX. The entire section is struck.
There will be much rejoicing in the anti-Franchise IDX partisans, and much gnashing of teeth in parts of New Jersey, Texas, Colorado, and elsewhere. Except that both the rejoicing and the gnashing will be premature. Naturally, there will be differences of opinion on the subject, but I do believe that much like royal succession, the death of the old king results immediately in the new king taking power.
The valuable lesson that the Franchises will have learned from this whole affair is not to ask NAR for permission before spending millions of dollars on a new approach to listing data. That does, of course, concern me, but let’s delve into the analysis first.
Business and travel have really kept me away from the blog, but… since I have a few days at home, I did want to write about the new IDX Policy that will be proposed at NAR Anaheim next month. I’ve managed to obtain a copy of the proposal through my sources (thank you guys, you know who you are!) and… there be some interesting things in it.
The big news, as many have already heard, is that the Franchise IDX policy will be repealed in its entirety. The overall thrust of the proposal appears to be one aimed at restoring the status quo ante. But the way the proposal goes about it is… interesting. Let’s dive in.
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I’ve been traveling more or less nonstop for a couple of weeks, and busy as hell in any event, so I kind of missed the controversy around Redfin’s Scouting Report. I’d suggest heading over to Jay Thompson’s blog to get his thoughts on the product, and the various responses from the real estate industry to it. I don’t have a whole lot to add to the controversy.
But there are at least a few things that most of the commenters are missing on this controversy. I’m far more concerned, actually, about the responses to Scouting Report and what they say about the industry than about the Scouting Report itself.
Don't Tase Me, Bro!
Ah, the horse ain’t quite dead yet, Matt Dollinger. Nor is the discussion a moot point.
I testify, cuz at the September dinner of the Wired Straits Social Club (kinda like a Houston-based Lucky Strikes, which I started in NYC), we discussed this issue at some length. And got something out of it.
I figured I’d share at least one insight from that with you.
