Monthly Archives: August 2011

NAR, Meet NRA… Guns and REALTORS

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Over on Agent Genius, there’s a post about some study done as a marketing tool by Moby (the “let people know where you are” app) with REALTORS in mind. Apparently, September is “REALTOR Safety Month” at NAR, and the good folks there have put together a bunch of materials for y’all.

Now, the study apparently showed (I say apparently because I’m not putting my name/email in to download the said study, thereby ending up in their CRM software) that 1 in 4 men REALTORS carried a knife or a gun with them while “on the job”, while only 7% or so of women REALTORS did so. Lani Rosales, the Editor-in-Chief of AgentGenius, writes:

The above chart outlines Canadian and American answers and although we knew a small portion of real estate professionals would indicate carrying a gun, especially those practicing in the foreclosure or short sale markets, but despite a massive disparity between men and women regarding carrying a gun or knife on the job, it is extremely intriguing that one in four male Realtors indicate they carry a knife or gun while on the job. One in four women carry some form of pepper spray while only five percent of male Realtors do.

The major differences between the behaviors between male Realtors and female Realtors is highly intriguing, but it is most interesting that such a high number of men carry either a knife or gun while they are on the job.

I’m not sure what Lani finds interesting about the difference, but what I find interesting — nay, disturbing and of great concern — is the fact that only 5% of women REALTORS carry a gun while working. If anyone should go about with a concealed firearm while working, it is the female REALTOR.

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Quick: The Prezi From My NRG/HAR Talk Today

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Is here:

http://prezi.com/1_mwtyk4vqcd/welcome-to-dystopia/

Welcome to Dystopia! on Prezi

By the way, I’m really, really liking Prezi. I expect to use it from now on for all presentations. Amazing that a web app is better than even Keynote….

-rsh

Moore’s Law and Real Estate: Speculations

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A 1982 Osborne Executive next to a 2007 iPhone

I’m giving a presentation tomorrow at the Nextgen Realtor Group of the Houston Association of REALTORS. I do believe the actual title of my presentation, as in the program itself, is called Welcome to Dystopia. Somehow, it seems, I’ve become the Cassandra of the real estate industry. But in researching for the presentation, I ran across something that I wanted to think about more. And since writing blogposts is one of my primary ways to think about things… here it goes.

Moore’s Law states that the number of transistors one can fit on an integrated circuit board doubles every two years. (Originally, it was doubling every year, then every 18 months, and these days, the accepted ratio seems to be double every two years.) This principle is taken more or less as gospel within the computer hardware industry, and of course, the computer software industry designs its programs with Moore’s Law in mind. You write code that can barely function on today’s machines, and by the time you finish all the QA testing and roll it out, computers have gotten faster and more powerful.

So a ‘shorthand’ expression of Moore’s Law is that computing power doubles every two years.

Okay, you’re thinking… so what? We knew that. Duh!

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Even the LA Times Notices Millenials Are Screwed

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How's that hopey-changey stuff working out for ya?

One of my pet hobby topics is to fret about the Millenials (the twentysomethings of today). I’ve written about this “largest demographic group like evah” here, here, and here – as well as peppered throughout this blog for a while now. A lot of people — especially in real estate — like to point to the older reaches of the Millenials (the young 30somethings) and think that they are the future of the industry.

Well, to be sure, from pure demographics standpoint, the Millenials do point to the future of the industry. But you should worry about that. A lot. My opinion about the Millenials is that they are the most Screwed Generation in American history who have had their initiative beaten out of them by overprotective parents, teachers and “safety” bureaucrats; their future mortgaged by irresponsible politicians of both parties with full-throated support by the Boomer Generation; their expectations of what is a good life totally unmoored from reality by Hollywood; their options foreclosed by a college-industrial complex that burdened them with absolutely unsustainable student debt (that is not dischargeable in bankruptcy); and of course, they screwed themselves with their attitude of entitlement and superiority complex based on nothing more than the fact that they know how to text message real fast and post pictures to Facebook.

It appears that even the dinosaurs over at the LA Times have noticed that the Hopeychange Generation is actually the Totally-Screwed Generation:

Call it Generation Vexed — young Americans who are downsizing expectations in the face of an economic future that is anything but certain. Career plans are being altered, marriages put off and dreams shelved.

Welcome to the real world, LA Times. Jump right in, the water is freezing.

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BREAKING: CRMLS Merges With SOCALMLS

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I just got confirmation that CRMLS will merge with SOCAL MLS, forming the largest MLS in the country. I’m waiting for the press release now. [Full disclosure: CRMLS was a client of 7DS Associates.]

EDIT: The press release is out. It’s here.

Word is that the combined entity — which will operate under the CRMLS (California Regional MLS) and with Art Carter as the CEO — will have some 68,000 subscribers, dwarfing the current largest MLS (MRIS) by over 50%. MRIS has roughly 40,000 subscribers in the Mid-Atlantic area.

I’ll post more once I’ve read the press release and looked into this more. But top of mind thoughts/impressions:

This is quite obviously the start of a major new regional MLS in the largest real estate market in the country: California. It could be a game-changer in the MLS landscape.

The other smaller MLS’s in the southern California market have got to be thinking about what this means. Either join the parade, or possibly get steamrolled. Northern California — which boasts a couple of very large MLS’s as well — should be taking a very hard look indeed at consolidation.

And M&A within this space is a very difficult task, given all of the politics involved. Major achievement by the teams, the various Boards, and the Associations involved. Kudos to all!

-rsh

Is It Complicated? Further Musings on the MLS

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“No servant can serve two masters.”

- Jesus Christ, Luke 16:13

Judith Lindenau, a consultant to MLS and Associations with decades of experience, recently wrote a post in which she took up my modest suggestion of making brokers pay for the MLS. It’s worth reading the whole thing, as she presents some countering views both to things I have suggested, as well as to things I have not suggested.

I thought it worth musing on some of her points — as well as the points raised in the comments by luminaries such as Gregg Larson of Clareity and Victor Lund of WAV Group, men who have been in this industry far longer than I have, whose opinions I always take seriously.

In her post, she lays out two main counter-arguments:

  1. Making brokers pay doesn’t solve anything, and it’s been tried before and is being tried today by various MLS’s.
  2. The problems facing the MLS requires dynamic solutions, tackling complex issues such as governance, vendors, NAR policies, and the like.

As Gregg Larson puts it succinctly in the comments, “This is a lame discussion.” :)

Well, as much as I’d hate to extend a lame discussion, there is something worth exploring here, so I’m gonna indulge myself and do just that.

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A Modest Proposal On Fixing the MLS

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Over at 1000watt, there is a rather interesting debate going on with some heavy hitters contributing, on whether big brokers should or should not support innovations and tools by the MLS or Association. Go check it out if you haven’t already.

The general thrust is that Brian Boero and Marc Davison both believe that innovations are an unqualified good, and that big brokerages have no reason to oppose innovation wherever it occurs — even if that is at the MLS, at the local Association, or at NAR. As Marc writes:

If you share this belief, then I submit it would be impossible for you to ever stand in the way of any innovation or impede anyone from offering that innovation. Even an MLS.

If you share this belief, never fear a tool. And always proceed by having supreme confidence in what you could do with any tool versus others.

The basic idea is that the big brokerage, with its superior execution ability will benefit more from any tool or feature offered by the MLS/Association.

The counterpoint, articulated well by a few folks who are in a position to know, is that brokerages invest heavily in technology, in tools, and in innovation. And that the MLS or Association offering those same capabilities out results in an unfair leveling of the playing field. For example, here’s Pam O’Connor, CEO of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World:

Many brokers (and not just the largest ones) invest heavily in tools for their agents for the purpose of differentiation with consumers and attracting the best and brightest. It’s called competition. To have their local association or MLS then offer the same thing dilutes that investment and competitive edge.

It’s an interesting discussion.

Well, I have a concrete suggestion to every MLS that I think would go a long way towards solving this particular conundrum. I happen to think it’ll help some other conundrums as well.

The MLS should cease collecting payment from the agent/member; it should, instead, collect payment directly from the broker, and only from the broker. Change the customer of the MLS to be the brokerages, and some of these problems become easier to think through.

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Why Shouldn’t the MLS Be A Public Utility?

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The Future of the MLS?

Last week, at the Inman Connect conference, I got into a rather interesting — if dry and technical for non-lawyer types — discussion with Brian Larson about whether MLS could escape being classified as a public utility. I’m not going to go into that, since that discussion tends to have a lot to do with issues like anti-trust exemptions, regulation, various legislation throughout the years, etc.

Instead, let me ask a patented Notorious Dumb Question.

Why should not the MLS be a public utility?

Right now, I can imagine the readers of this blog divided into three groups. The first group is smiling acidly in incredulous bemusement, because they know what the hell it means for a MLS to be classified as a public utility. “You just don’t get it,” I can hear them say. To which I say, read the whole post, coz I think I do get it. :) The second group is going, “What the hell does that mean?” And the third group has already hit the BACK button. See ya!

For those remaining… a brief (I promise) detour.

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Brief Reflection on the Inman Data Summit

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Last week, I was fortunate to be able to participate in the Inman Data Summit in my small way as one of the two co-moderators. Some of the conversations that occurred, both on and off the stage, are among the most important in the real estate industry today. Since I was “working” the whole time, however, it was difficult to wrap my head around some of the more interesting things I saw.

In fact, I don’t think I can do some of the topics justice in a short blogpost. What I can do is simply to highlight a few of the more interesting issues that came up.

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