Monthly Archives: December 2010

Title Issues in Foreclosuregate

From the heart of Roll Tide country. This picture has nothing to do with this post.

Were I not driving across this great big nation of ours, I would have been far more productive on blogging about foreclosuregate. As it is, I’m fairly limited to writing at various truck stops in a larger work that hopes to lay out all of the issues and what the real estate industry can and should do about it.

At the same time, there are issues that I find compelling to at least discuss, seek comments and insights, as I work through the extraordinarily complex scenarios. One such issue is the impact on title.

In discussions with title industry experts on the topic, I’ve been assured that the whole “foreclosuregate” which began with the robosigning scandal won’t have a dramatic impact on title. First, various experts have told me that all the robosigning stuff is just technicalities, details that don’t change the actual economic fact of a borrower who owes money, and a lender who is owed money. Some servicers have cut corners and possibly committed perjury and fraud, but once people get into the files and start unravelling things, it’ll all come clear. Second, I have been advised that the actual act of foreclosure itself clears title, at least for subsequent good-faith purchasers.

Upon further review, I’m not convinced that either scenario will hold up. There may indeed be serious and significant title issues that could affect millions of properties, millions of buyers, title insurance companies, and lenders for years to come.

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About Those Radio Ads…

This is a brief post from the road.

One benefit (?) of driving all day long is that you get to hear all the radio ads you’ve been missing as a denizen of cyberspace. Well, one radio commercial I’ve heard over and over and over and over again through six states is that one that begins “MORTGAGES SHOULD BE ILLEGAL!” You know the one I’m talking about, right?

Now, the commercial is patently ridiculous on its face. I have to hope that even dumbasses realize that if mortgages were in fact illegal, they wouldn’t have gotten the loan to buy the house they’re living in, and they would still be paying rent to Mr. Potter. (Oh yes, did I mention that A Wonderful Life was on during Christmas? And that it seems eerily prescient of the world we live in today?) But these commercials are running everywhere, 24×7, and clearly telling consumers “You’re getting ripped off by the banks if you take out a mortgage!”

What got me wondering is whether that commercial and others like it, which constantly denigrate banks, call mortgages illegal and immoral, and talk about how you can transform debt into wealth and all other sorts of nonsense are having an effect nonetheless on the real estate market. Wall Street Journal the other day profiled a homeowner who walked away from an underwater mortgage, despite being able to pay. I just wonder if there’s a connection at all between these guys who are hawking whatever debt consolidation or credit counseling services they’re offering using fairly… ah… hyperbolic language and the increasing social acceptance of “strategic defaults”.

For that matter, after being bombarded by those messages on the drive to work and the drive home, I have to wonder how many people would even want to take out a mortgage at all.

Meh. I’m probably hyper-caffeinated and prone to random thoughts on the long roadtrip, but… man, those commercials are starting to get on my nerves.

-rsh

VIPs and Social Networks

So I login to Facebook today just to check out what’s going on, while waiting for the various workers I’ve hired to dig my car (with attached U-Haul trailer) out from under 3′ of snow. And I see that Facebook is recommending a friend to me: Dottie Herman, the CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Which got me wondering… is there any point to networking with a VIP on Facebook or Twitter? Really? What is the likelihood that you’ll get real interaction, like from a real human being, from someone so visible? These are individuals who represent major companies or organizations. Are you really going to get to know them as a person in such a public forum?

I know exceptions exist, but for the most part, people who have such senior roles are not likely to be free, open, and human on public social networking sites. Because human beings are imperfect, and being imperfect, sometimes they mis-speak, or are inappropriate for polite company. Hang out with some of the VIP’s off-hours, behind-the-scenes, and you’ll see that those perfectly coiffed, perfectly spoken people are just men and women like any other. But the social media interactions of most VIP’s strike me as carefully crafted as any PR wire release. Everything is either trivial (“Happy Birthday, so-and-so” and “Loved the new movie XYZ”) or carefully neutral pastel-like shades of correct. What’s the point of following such people?

I just don’t think there’s any way you’ll get VIP’s behaving like regular human beings in public. Social media experts are telling young people to be careful what they upload into Facebook, since those pictures of keg stands in Daytona Beach will come back to bite them in the ass when they’re going for a job. What do you think they’re telling CEO’s of companies?

So, what do you think? Are you connected/friends with any VIP’s in or outside of real estate, who aren’t afraid to just let it all hang out? I can only think of a couple myself.

-rsh

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and Changes to Notorious R.O.B.

First of all, Merry Christmas, everybody.

For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace. – Isaiah 9:6

Of course, I would also like to wish everyone a wonderful end to 2010, and a happy new year, as we gird up to face 2011.

Second, to all of my readers who put up with overly long posts filled with wonkish Eeyore-like doom and gloom, as well as off-the-wall wackiness, I’d just like to say thank you. As I keep saying, I don’t blog for you but for myself, but I’d be lying if I said you don’t make writing this blog more fun and more educational. I learn more from your comments, both on the blog and via email/twitter/Facebook, than I have ever “taught” through a post. Thank you.

Third, I will be making some significant changes to this my personal blog. I started in January of 2008 with a post that sadly remains as applicable today as it was then:

The Real Estate industry has gone tech-crazy.

Here’s a wakeup call: all that technology does is make your existing processes more efficient. If what you do is crap, it makes crap more efficient. If what you do is valuable, then it makes that more efficient.

Notorious R.O.B. was then, and has always been, my personal blog. It’s where I work out my personal frustrated-writer tendencies and engage in speculative conversation about topics I love discussing: real estate, technology, marketing, and now, public policy. But over the past three years, as many of you have blessed me with visits, with your attention, with thoughtful commentary, I felt like this was becoming more than that. Some of my posts over the past year have been… shall we say far more “authoritative” at least in approach if not in result. Part of the reason, of course, is that I started a consultancy in 2009, changing my relationship with the industry as a whole.

What I’ve decided to do starting in 2011 is to do more of my heavier writing on the 7DS Associates blog. I’ve even redesigned the site, by hand even (which explains any flaws in design and navigation, since I’m no web designer). I’ll keep writing about whatever strikes my fancy here at NROB, and much of that is likely to be real estate related, but I’m going to try hard to keep NROB more personal, more “bloggy”, and reserve some of the heavy-duty stuff I’ve been doing of late requiring hours of research into esoterica of real estate for 7DS.

What you should expect, then, are shorter, more frequent updates to NROB, some of which may have little to nothing to do with real estate. I may end up talking movies, politics, fantasy football, or the Jets. Who knows. The weightier, 3000 words posts you all have come to expect will likely live over at the 7DS blog. If you dig on that sort of thing, well, go on over there and bookmark the 7DS blog. I’ll be doing far more writing over there in the new year.

Thanks again, and see you all on the Internet in 2011!

-rsh

Seven Predictions for 2011, With Music Videos!

Ted Williams: .406 batting average in 1941. Me: .600 in 2009. Sorta...

Coming off of an awesome, Hall-of-Fame type of year in which I batted .600 in predictions (or, alternatively, a year in which I only got 6 out of 10 predictions even remotely close to right, and hence am a big #FAIL), I thought I would don the Nostradamus hat once again and make foolish predictions for 2011. I know I should make 10 predictions, but… y’know, I’m sort of stuck on that number Seven.

Here are seven predictions for 2011. Many are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back! But as a bonus, each prediction comes with a music video for your entertainment.

[Warning: don’t read this is you’re feeling happy and optimistic, and you want to stay that way. I’m personally feeling happy and optimistic, but as I put this together, I can’t help but want to reach for strong drink for the industry as a whole. I know I tend towards bearishness, and some might suggest, alarmism, so… I’d suggest you go read some other 2011 predictions posts as well. Here are a few I’ve seen myself: Lani on Agent Genius, Greg Robertson on VendorAlley, and this whole series over at Inman.com.

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Reviewing My 2009 Predictions

The Seven of Cups Means You're Batting .600!

It’s that time of the year when thoughts turn to chestnuts roasting on an open fire, sleighing through the snow laughing all the way, and making predictions about the future that are likely to be completely wrong. I’m working on that.

But in advance of it, I thought I’d take a look at my track record. In 2009, I made a Top Ten Predictions for 2010 on Inman.com (which you can buy here, though I see not a penny of it, so why I’m promoting it is unclear to me). A year ago I made the following predictions:

10. Social Media Will Divide Between E-Commerce (Can Prove ROI) and PR (Cannot Prove ROI)
9. RPR will reinvent itself
8. A Major Brokerage Company Will Hand the Reins to an Executive Under 40
7. Google Becomes a Real Player in Real Estate
6. Housing market will be worse in 2010 than it was in 2009
5. The New York Jets will once again not win a Superbowl in 2010
4. At least one of the major national real estate search web sites will no longer be around as an independent company.
3. REBarCamp will move closer towards conventional conferences, while conventional conferences will move closer to REBarCamp.
2. A wave of consolidation will start in 2010 within MLS industry.
1. Real estate enterprise CRM will finally make its appearance and start to create competitive advantage for those who have it.

So let’s see how I did.

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Can You Say… Oh $#!^ For REO and Foreclosures?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that if you have a REO or short sale practice, you want to pay attention to some legal cases going on around the country:

Trouble is, MERS might lack legal standing to bring a foreclosure action. At least, that’s what the attorneys for the homeowners who are getting foreclosed are claiming.

Given that so many mortgages were packaged into securitization pools (RMBS), sliced and diced, with different investors taking a different piece of a few hundred thousand pooled mortgages… it really isn’t clear who actually owns the mortgage, and has the right to enforce its terms by foreclosure (or have its duly authorized agent/servicer do it).

I noted then that this seemingly esoteric legal issue is a thermonuclear landmine for the entire foreclosure and short sale industry, including real estate agents who represent buyers and lenders.

Well, Congress has been holding hearings on problems in the foreclosure industry. I haven’t seen too many media coverage of the hearings. This blogpost on Washington Post is one of the few I could find. I just spent valuable two hours of my life watching CSPAN video of the hearing on December 15, 2010, which is embedded above.

This topic is just too big, even for my lengthy posts. But if you have anything to do with foreclosures, REO’s, and short sales… I would suggest you spend some time looking at this issue.

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Interbroker Compensation and Compliance

Respect my authoritah! Or not. Up to you.

As is somewhat normal, Brian Larson has a thought-provoking post on the future of the MLS up on MLS Tesseract. I gather it’s just one part of a series that he wrote a while back on Inman. In this particular post, Brian argues that interbroker compensation (aka, “Offer of Cooperation and Compensation”) is an anachronism and should be abandoned. He cites a number of factors — decline of sub-agency, restraining innovation in brokerage models, unfairness, and possible legal problems — to argue for getting rid of the Offer.

Brian ends the post, which was written in 2005/2006, with this:

So, other than references to some old reports from 2005 and 2006, I think all of this still makes sense, perhaps more so… What do you think?

Well, I think you’re making a ton of sense, Brian. But I do have a question about compliance, and data integrity.

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Personal Note: Remember the Alamo!

Just wanted to let my readers know that as of sometime in January of 2011, I will be yet another Yankee who has fled to Texas. My wife has just accepted a job at a company based in Houston, and since I can do what I do from just about anywhere, we said… what the hell. Everyone else seems to be going to Texas, why not us?

Of course, they want her at her desk early in January. It’s now middle of December. Not a whole lot of time. So I’ll be a bit busy and preoccupied with the move. Blogging might take a hit, and I may be even more difficult to pin down, but it should all be over and done with by the end of December.

Houston, you’ve been warned.

-rsh

The Opening Salvo of the Housing War: Mortgage Interest Deduction

Men, they're coming for the mortgage interest deduction! This means war!

NAR has finally gone to the mattresses over Federal policy. Some time ago, I wrote that the mortgage interest deduction may be phased out or limited as part of Obama Administration’s new “sustainable housing” policy. At the time, I’ve heard quite a few people say, “It’ll never happen”. The thought was that the public loves the MID so much, they feel entitled to it, just like Social Security and Medicare. Plus, NAR is such a powerful political operation that no politician would ever dare touch the MID.

Well, the White House Deficit Commission unveiled its recommendation today, and guess what? The MID is most definitely on the table for outright elimination or significant limitation. From Housingwire:

Of the many proposals inside the document, the most contested one for the housing industry will be the mortgage-interest tax deduction. The commission proposes for the deduction to be limited to principal residences only and that eligible mortgages be capped at $500,000 instead of the $1 million current cap. The commission also proposed a 12% nonrefundable mortgage-interest tax credit for all taxpayers.

As expected, NAR criticized that part of the report, suggesting that eliminating or limiting the MID would cripple the housing market, drag values down another 15% or so, and so on. Investors who have been coming back into the market, at least for foreclosures and short sales, might need to redo all of their financial models based on the tax subsidy for mortgage interest not being there anymore. Buyers will need to redo their rent-vs-buy calculations. All sorts of bad things for housing, at least in the short-term, will come about.

Then earlier today, I see that NAR has put out a Call to Action to its members to call their Congresscritters to defend the MID. This is merely the opening battle, so how this issue gets resolved should signal how the rest of the Housing War of 2010-2012 will go.

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