Comments on: Something Wicked, This Way Comes: Housing Market Signals

By: In Case You Were Feeling Optimistic Today… | Notorious R.O.B.

In Case You Were Feeling Optimistic Today… | Notorious R.O.B. — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 20:40:30 +0000

[...] things I’ve read in the past couple of days that make me a wee bit jittery. Back in May, I wrote that there were some worrisome signs for the housing market. These signs don’t make me any [...]

By: Trulia’s Rent vs. Buy Index: Fun With Numbers | Notorious R.O.B.

Trulia’s Rent vs. Buy Index: Fun With Numbers | Notorious R.O.B. — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 05:30:44 +0000

[...] The full list of the 50 cities is available here as a PDF. Given the current economic trends, and the rising interest by consumers for rentals, this is a great time for people in real estate to be talking about renting vs. [...]

By: vine2winesd

vine2winesd — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 21:20:41 +0000

Great blog!

I totally agree with your post. I am new to your blog, but dont know if you have heard anything from Chris Thornburg from UCLA/Beacon Economics? He was bearish in his analyzes of this RE stuff way back in '05ish and I agreed with him back then when the Kool Aid dam broke a couple of years later.

Still more FAIL to come!

By: vine2winesd

vine2winesd — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 17:20:41 +0000

By: Winnie Lau-Heath

Winnie Lau-Heath — Thu, 27 May 2010 23:45:40 +0000

The Hitwise report totally reflected the real estate market in “Home & Apt Rental”. Homeowners may search for option to rent their property out completely or partially while “awaiting” loan MOD or selling. On the other hand, there are homeowners who walk away intentionally! They buy better, bigger property at lower price, or go for leasing in the process of loan MOD or before foreclosure. There is no legislation to restrict homeowners of doing so. The market would not be stable until the problem inventory is cleared and lenders start to lend, again.

By: Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 26 May 2010 20:53:52 +0000

Wow - I am ever late to your blues party Rob!

Great stuff and I concur with much of what you lay out here. I'd have to say I am less bearish than I was in early 2009 but still bearish. As in we are not standing on a cliff.

I keep looking at unemployment hovering at 10%, credit remaining very tight and the expiration of the housing stimulus ie tax credits that will cut out sales activity and press prices lower at the end of the year and next. Foreclosures won't peak until next year. Lenders are looking at CRE losses, credit card losses, auto loan losses, etc. They are looking for reasons NOT to lend right now. They will eventually revert to the underwriting mean but not for several years.

With all that floating around it seems like the best case scenario would be for the housing market to move sideways for the next few years - however the reality is, I'm afraid, that housing will erode further over the next 2-3 years another 10-15% nationally. How can prices trend higher as we keep reading in press release generated news releases? I can't seem to do that math.

However, depending on the market, it might not preclude me from buying (I'm not looking to) if I view the market as a long term investment. We all got so screwed up during the credit boom by viewing housing as speculative and a short term hold. It's looking like we have 5 years of general weakness followed by 5 years of stability ahead of us and of course, several Yankee World Series Championships to experience to help us bide the time.

By: Sergio Leone style « Closer To Pittsburgh

Sergio Leone style « Closer To Pittsburgh — Tue, 25 May 2010 20:01:29 +0000

[...] the Notorious R.O.B. (the site is worth a visit just for the name and the header [...]

By: robhahn

robhahn — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:12:57 +0000

That's a very interesting point, Joe, on the hyperlocal vs. big RE websites… Have you seen an increase on your own site Y-O-Y since July of 2009? How much? And is it a consistent increase month over month?

That could explain quite a lot actually…

-rsh

By: JoeLoomer

JoeLoomer — Tue, 25 May 2010 12:03:45 +0000

Hitwise only serves to prove the move from big-box sites to hyperlocal. The little man has learned SEO and it's kicking the big-boys in the goolies. You want a house in East Wherever? Then you search for “home in East Wherever.” There's a ten-spot on this that there's five local agents in your top ten results. Ok, that's my take on Hitwise and the trending down of traffic (Hitwise doesn't index my site, yet I've been between #2-#5 on Google for the last year for the top Keywords for our area).

The rest of your post does have my haunches all a-flutter – especially when – in the last week – two perfectly employed and thriving homeowners have called my wife about short-selling just to be rid of their home.

By: Erica Ramus

Erica Ramus — Mon, 24 May 2010 17:27:11 +0000

Great post. But I am a broker, moving into bigger digs (long story) June 1. Now we'd better sell like hell before it all goes to pot.